The TopRate Model Assessment
The TopRate Model Assessment is found on the Assess Page in the pre-race form analysis section of the TopRate platform.
The TopRate price is the output of a regression model that considers a range of variables to assess a race's winning chances.
- The rating profile of each horse (seven individual factors.)
- The field strength of the horse's most recent races.
- The merit of a horse's finish position and beaten margins, relative to field size and factoring in our own race prizemoney scale.
- Recent in-run positions and expected position in the upcoming race.
- The expected performance across a horse's most recent starts, reflected by the betting market.
- Jockey rating.
- Trainer rating.
- The current market price of the horse
For first starters, the TopRate model leans more on the market price with our Jockey and Trainer rating factored in.
By default, the TopRate market is set to 100%, meaning that the sum of the winning probability for each horse expressed through its price equals 100%.
The winning probability for each horse, expressed by the TopRate assessed price, is calculated as 1 / Price x 100.
For example, if the assessed price is $3.00, then the implied winning chance is 1 /3 x 100 = 33.33%
You can change the default percentage for your TopRate assessed price via the Defaults menu, accessed by clicking on the orange circle at the top right of the screen that contains your initials.
You can change the percentage for an individual race by clicking on that value just above the Price and Rank columns within a race and manually changing the value.
Using the TopRate Assessed Price
It is naive to think that betting all market overlays against the TopRate assessed price will make you a profit. Successful betting is about using the intelligence available to gain an understanding of each race and identify bets that make sense to you.
A great starting point is to focus on the top two rated chances by the TopRate model and look for bets where you feel one of those horses appeals to you much more than the other and/or they have an advantage over other key chances, especially those that might be priced shorter in the current market.
Leveraging additional variables not factored in the TopRate model can help to identify good betting opportunities that make sense to you. For example:
Map and Race Shape Angles
- Will the horse be significantly more or less suited by the map than recent runs? Especially the last start.
- Will the horse be significantly more or less suited by the likely race shape than recent runs? Especially the last start.
- Will one key chance be better suited by the map and/or race shape than another?
Rating Angles
- Does the horse's recent performances (especially the last start) have more merit than the raw rating indicates (i.e. achieve when unsuited or unlucky)
- Does the horse have the potential to improve on its past ratings towards better ratings due to being fitter for this race or being better suited by the upcoming distance and/or track condition?
- Were there significant excuses for one or more recent ratings being lower than expected, which may be dragging down the horse's model assessment? (the model works on objective data.)
Other Factors
- Does one horse appear more reliable and consistent than another?
- Does the horse show positive or negative traits that influence how much you like it beyond what the raw data shows? For example, a horse that has shown acceleration in recent races vs. another that might be more one-paced. A horse that races keenly or exhibits other negative behaviours vs. one that does everything right.
- Are there any gear changes that influence your view on a hose's potential performance in the upcoming race?
- Does the horse show traits or otherwise profile like it has more upside potential than the average horse (especially others in this race)? This could see it improve its performances over what it has shown so far, which the model has assessed it on.